YOUhome London Property Times

Welcome to the first issue of the 2024 YOUhome London Property Times.
Looking at London Property in 2024, our latest report covers prime central London property prices and trends. Compiled by the YOUhome Property Experts team located in our Notting Hill Estate Agents office, we are delighted to report on a resilient start to the year, with more positive news for home buyers and sellers in London. 

LOOKING BACK: WHAT HAPPENED IN Q3 AND Q4, 2023?

Q3 and Q4 2023 saw the UK economy broadly continue to stabilise from the ructions suffered over a year ago, all in the shadow of growing geopolitical turmoil with the Middle East flaring to add to and draw attention from the entrenched Ukraine conflict.

For those with the stomach for it, the World Economic Forum in 2023 delivered a summary of risks facing the world, identifying a return of “older” risks – inflation, cost-of-living crises, trade wars, widespread social unrest, geopolitical confrontation and the threat of nuclear warfare. These are being amplified by newer global risks: unsustainable levels of debt (see Q4 2023 Property Times), an era of low growth, low global investment, de-globalization, the growing impacts

of climate change and solutions in an ever-shrinking window for transition to a 1.5°C climate benchmark world. These all converge to shape a unique, uncertain and turbulent decade to come.

Added to this: Donald Trump is experiencing popularity in early US primaries that he didn’t experience when he first bid for the presidency; and the UK’s own election, likely to be called late this year with Labour’s chance for government appearing to be “theirs to lose.”

With all this, we at YOUhome feel it’s important to look at the economy and remind ourselves of important aspects around which we might rally (in a constructive rather than bellicose/MAGA way). London has a history of resilience, it is key now to work together as a country to identify and build upon our strengths.

SOFT LANDING FOR THE UK ECONOMY

Over the past year the UK economy’s position has broadly improved and with it the residential property market which is liquid and functioning well (and we’re not “just saying this” our sales experiences on the coalface confirm this, see later).

Economists appear quietly confident that the Bank of England is set to return to its 2% price growth target without a sharp recession. In spite of recent wobbles: retail data for the end of the year was disappointing, largely it seems due to people taking increasing advantage of Black Friday discounts; and a small reduction in economic output which if continued next month would indicate a technical recession, most analysts believe that inflation, currently at 4%,up from 3.9% in December but well below October 2022’s 41 year high of 11.1%, will fall below 2% by the spring and remain at this level for the rest of the year.

This led the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee to argue to keep rates on hold at 5.25% but with hope for a cut before July boosting sentiment.

This boost and the tick up due to disappointing retail data etc. is reflected in the UK Long Term Swap Rate which is often the basis for funding home purchases. The rate showed almost a 1% reduction from just below 5% in August last year, down to a recent low of just below 3.6% just before Christmas 2023 with a slight tick up to a current level just above 4%.

In spite of these recent wobbles, there is an upbeat air for the country’s near-term prospects, businesses have easier access to funding and households are more able to refinance mortgages. The reality is that in spite of electioneering promises, the UK is facing tighter monetary policy.

RESILIENCE TO THE PROPERTY MARKET

The central London property market continues to function well – there has been a resilience to the property market that we feel is important to point out. 2023 saw a reluctance for people to bring their property to market. Total transactions (the red line on the graph) across central London was markedly down compared to 2022 levels and on pre-pandemic (2017 to 2019) activity.

Across the whole of prime central London mean sales prices (graph above) achieved in 2023 were down compared with 2022 and flat with 2017 to 2019 values achieved.

On a more local level, for example, South Kensington, transactions were again down on 2022 and pre-pandemic levels, with mean sales values achieved below that of 2022 and down on 2017 levels.

Notting Hill’s mean price achieved has, however, grown year on year since 2017.

But this comparatively small sample can easily be skewed by high value single data points such as these best in class house sales like 38 Clarendon Road W11 selling for £35m (£5,400psf) in June 2023, and 1 St John’s Gardens W11 which sold for £28m in January last year.

Across the board, properties sold quickly if priced carefully and marketed properly. YOUhome was instructed to market a house in Chelsea, after attempts of another well known agent had failed. When priced and marketed carefully a sale was agreed in under four weeks as shown by YOUhome’s marketing profile below:

YOUHOME'S MARKETING APPROACH SELLS LONDON HOMES SUCCESSFULLY

YOUhome’s unique clarity and information for the client during the marketing campaign helps us sell over 80% of properties we’re instructed to market. After a period of monitoring the market as priced by the earlier agent we advised a reduction in price ( the grey dot ) which brought a healthy activity of views online ( the red line ), viewings ( yellow dots ) and offers ( green ) and the sale was agreed.

LONDON IS A RESILIENT WORLD LEADER

In spite of world events, London’s ability to progress and grow is worthy of a reminder:

London, a resilient world leader – since the second world war London’s population shrank by 20%, then came a sharp influx of foreigners, the economy grew on the rich mix of financial deregulation, European integration and collapse of communism to the point that by 2012 and the Olympics, London genuinely felt like the world’s capital. Financial crisis followed by Brexit then the pandemic has impacted the city and yet its character and make up means London is well set to absorb adversity and move on, compared to many other cities.

Consultants EY estimate the number of jobs relocated from the City abroad since Brexit as being 7,000, much lower than anticipated and it deems the City is large enough to cope and was already diverse with business beyond Europe, particularly with increased US investment (with an increase in American property buyers over recent years). Also, London’s other specialist industries other than finance, service industries: technology, law, media, education and consulting have not been as restricted by rules post-Brexit as other industries to the point that, according to think tank Resolution Foundation, London’s exports of services have grown by 47% from 2016 to 2021.

GLOBAL TURMOIL INCREASES ATTRACTIVENESS OF LONDON AS A SAFE HAVEN

The key drivers that make London attractive to investors and occupants alike, the time- zone, English language and the rule of law, underpinned by the presence of leading universities, highly skilled workers and access to capital…have helped London survive. London’s status as a great source of education in the world continues.

THE VIEW FROM HERE - FIRST QUARTER 2024

POSITIVES
There is a continuing measure of predictability that helps reduce uncertainty. This helps the property market to function and for people to plan. When sellers bring their property to the market and if it is properly prepared, presented and promoted and carefully priced/positioned in the market, it will sell.
 
For Central London property owners the small number of strong, best in class prices being achieved will affect values all around and this is set to continue. Important not to be overly influenced by outliers, however.
 
There is a higher-than-average proportion of cash buyers in Central London/Notting Hill and whilst this has its advantages in terms of speed and certainty, these buyers know the value of this. Tthe market will continue to be affected by the tier of the market using finance and of course they can keep their money on deposit or in UK Gilts earning 5% per annum interest as came available in the latter part of 2023.
 
Geopolitical and political turmoil throughout the world leads to overseas buyers (particularly US based) seeking to relocate.

NEGATIVES
Domestic economic tightness - Whilst buyers in central London are comparatively wealthy, a high proportion will use mortgage finance and mortgage refinancing is continuing, albeit in a more manageable and liquid market than early 2023.
 
Geopolitical uncertainty, sparring super-powers, growing turmoil in the Middle East, the effects of the war in Ukraine, are likely to continue materially impacting theWest – this will affect the property market in the immediate and medium terms.

FOR FURTHER INSIGHTS VISIT MY PROPERTY MARKET 

A massively helpful property market data resource is available through YOUhome today. It has always been key but now more than ever it is vital for owners to know where their property sits in the market. The portals, Rightmove, Zoopla etc. are for property buyers. We have developed a way for property owners regularly to assess the value of property by drawing together and processing information on properties sold, on the market and exchanged, with many filters to enable drill-down and build the most relevant comparable market picture. This resource is free to air with property exchange information additionally available to YOUhome clients.
www.mypropertymarket.com 

YOUhome: for unique local market insight, expert advice and personal service.

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